As it began, so it ends. A manufactured migration crisis brought the first Wilders-led coalition into government, and yet another one has ushered in its end.

Speculation had been mounting for some time that the coalition was going to fall — the question was when and under which pretence. Finally, on Tuesday (3 June), after much ado, the answer was clear: the far-right anti-Islam Geert Wilders formally announced that his ‘Freedom Party’ (PVV) is abandoning the coalition government, citing that the coalition partners were unwilling to implement his ‘10 point plan’ for asylum policies.

He described the proposals as the strictest ‘asylum policies ever’, which included putting a complete stop on asylum seekers entering the country (also likely in conflict with EU law), using the military on the country’s borders and demanding Syrians with a temporary status to return to Syria. 

While Wilders claims that the other parties were stalling progress and blocking his policies, his coalition partners have insisted that they were willing to negotiate and that it was rather he who unexpectedly and irresponsibly backed out of negotiations.

More likely, however, is that beneath the decision lies electoral calculus.

Electoral games

The coalition partners in this miserable political marriage have likely been keeping their eyes on the polls and realise that the Dutch populace is becoming increasingly frustrated with the government’s inability to pass meaningful legislation. This is especially the case for Wilders, who is well aware that his appeal and resulting strength has for decades been as an oppositional figure critiquing governing political parties from the outside, rather than doing the actual governing.

But the script was flipped and his party led the coalition. It hence became untenable for Wilders to balance the contradiction of being at the head of the coalition’s strongest party while simultaneously seeking enough distance to criticise it as a victimised outsider. 

This is likely a major underlying reason for the sudden manufacturing of a crisis and Wilders stepping out of the coalition.

Now, we can expect him to enter into electoral mode, where he will fight bitterly to manoeuvre migration and right-wing populist talking points to the centre of the upcoming election campaign, all the while vigorously projecting his coalition’s legislative incapacity onto others. We’ve already seen this in the parliamentary debate following the collapse of the government. 

Of course, he is not the only one playing electoral games.

Dilan Yeşilgöz, the leader of the centre-right People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), which held the office of prime minister under Mark Rutte for over a decade between 2010-2024, is now positioning her party (yet again) as the ‘reasonable right-wing party’ capable of passing the legislation that Wilders failed to push through.

While the country will be run by a caregiver government until the next elections, Tom van der Meer argues that we’ll now witness a battle to determine the dominant conflict of the election.

This reflects a longstanding tendency of centre-right parties to regurgitate the political visions of the far right, perhaps in a slightly watered-down way, which frequently results in the deterioration of the centre and the normalisation of the extreme.

At the same time, there is an irony to the fact that the gradual decline of the Netherlands’ welfare state, social services and public institutions is arguably due to the longstanding mismanagement by the VVD. Let us not forget that it was under the leadership of the VVD that austerity and privatisation were broadly implemented, resulting in funds being slashed for the public healthcare system, the erosion of the public transportation system (especially in poorer and rural areas) and a doubling of homelessness. These issues have long been identified as drivers of right-wing populism by political scientists.

Setting the tenor in the ensuing campaign

While the country will be run by a caregiver government until the next elections, Professor of Political Science Tom van der Meer argues that we’ll now witness a battle to determine the dominant conflict of the election. Van der Meer makes the case that if Wilders is able to steer the dominant theme to be migration, then the PVV could receive considerable votes.

Meanwhile, the other parties of the political Right, most pronouncedly the VVD, continue to repeat Wilders’ arguments whilst presenting themselves as a reasonable and reliable alternative. And at the same time, claiming that the left is becoming arrogant and detached from the concerns of voters.

Meanwhile, the parties of the Dutch Left, most prominently Frans Timmermans of the Groenlinks-Labour alliance, have picked up on the persistent infighting and inability of the right-wing coalition to govern as their main talking point.

Although sensible to make this case given that the government has just collapsed, recent elections may provide lessons for any party attempting to push for an alternative.

It would be wise for parties to look towards others building movements that may prove more durable than a single electoral cycle for lessons.

While the Dutch Left’s leadership may feel giddy after the collapse of the government, particularly due to its improvement in the European parliamentary election last year, it would be wise to pause and reflect on the coming electoral strategy.

Last year’s European Parliamentary election came relatively soon after Wilders’ shock victory, meaning that the oppositional voting base was energised and ready to cast their voice for an alternative. It would be wise for parties to look towards others building movements that may prove more durable than a single electoral cycle for lessons.

Take Finland’s Li Andersson’s ability to promote a compelling alternative vision throughout the European parliamentary election, for example. In an interview, Andersson said ‘We have done the work of creating a modern left alternative for as many voters as possible. We have combined environmental policy with ambitious policies for redistribution, but we have also been very clear when it comes to international law and human rights.’

Or take the case of Spain where the Socialist government of Pedro Sanchez has passed ambitious economic policies that have lifted minimum wages, reduced unemployment, implemented labour market reforms, as well as pumped considerable investments into decarbonising the economy. The party has been able to maintain its position since 2018, despite setbacks and controversies.

At the heart of these two examples is a commitment to ambitious policies that have a meaningful impact on the material well-being of the population.

Creating a meaningful alternative will demand a deep and broad on-the-ground and engaged movement, lush with creativity and answers for a disaffected and pessimistic voting base.

Another example is the recent electoral gains, especially in Berlin, of the German Left party which focused on a door-to-door campaign that actively mobilised members of the party while at the same time remaining steadfast in its political and moral standpoints.

Creating a meaningful alternative will demand a deep and broad on-the-ground and engaged movement, lush with creativity and answers for a disaffected and pessimistic voting base. It will demand really reaching out to the embittered workers who feel alienated and politically betrayed. It will require democratic renewal, experimentation and a coherent and inspiring vision for the country.

It will demand all of this while not falling to blasé and comforting clichés of positivity and hope.

A contrasting cautionary tale would be to look at the campaign of the Democrats in the United States, which focused predominantly on an oppositional rhetoric against Donald Trump rather than a constructive and coherent vision for the country. As the Center for Working Class Politics (CWCP) argued ahead of the US presidential election last year, as long as the Harris campaign focused on Trump and not working-class needs, Trump would win the election.

We know how that ended.